Can Cadel still win the Tour de France?

James from Disciple of the Way left a comment on my previous Tour de France post, Tour de France Jerseys.

Hey Rodney

Just curious on how well placed you feel Cadel is after last nights ripper of a stage? The commentators seemed to jump back and forth from Sastre having enough time to Cadel staying just close enough.

As I do only watch the Tour de France I don’t really know how good a time trialist Cadel is, having to trust the commentators saying ‘he’s good’.

Do you think he has done enough? It def looks like it will be pretty tight!

For those who missed yesterday’s stage which finished on the punishing L’Alpe-d’Huez, Spain’s Carlos Sastre attacked on the climb and finished over two minutes ahead of the other tour leaders. His amazing effort meant that he took the Yellow Jersey from the shoulders of CSC team mate, Frank Schleck.

Cadel Evans, who started the race as favourite, is now in fourth place, 1:34 behind the leader, Sastre.

So can Evans come back from such a big loss of time? I think so.

Cadel is well and truly still in it.

On the first time trial of this year’s race Sastre lost 1:16 to Cadel. That ride was over a distance of 29.5 km.

Saturday’s time trial is much tougher and longer with a distance of 53 km. I’ve heard that Cadel rode the second time trial course four times before the tour to make sure that he knows every turn and every piece of road.

In normal circumstances I reckon he’d be able to pull back the 1:35 he needs over that distance but when Sastre has the yellow jersey on his back he’s likely to ride the time trial of his life.

Cadel Evans has always said that he sees Denis Menchov as his main rival for the Yellow Jersey in Paris.

Menchov was 7 seconds behind Evans in the first time trial so he would be a danger if he wasn’t just already over a minute behind Cadel in the overall standings. Of course anything can happen and if Menchov rides a brilliant time trial he could be a danger.

It’s quite amazing to see a Tour de France still so wide open at this point of the event. If Cadel manages to take the race it’ll be a stunning recomendation of his abilities considering his team has been missing in action most of the time when it’s counted. They say that it takes a team to win the Tour de France, and his team has supported him as well as their abilities have allowed, but if Cadel wins it will be a remarkable solo effort.



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About the author

Rodney Olsen

Rodney is a husband, father, cyclist, blogger and podcaster from Perth Western Australia.

He previously worked in radio for about 25 years but these days he spends his time at Compassion Australia, working towards releasing children from poverty in Jesus' name.

The views he expresses here are his own.

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7 Comments

  • Thats it. Both Sastre and Schleck have been ably supported by team CSC, especially qhite jersey wearing Andy Schleck (yes, I am trying to sound knowledgable…is it working?:D)! If Sastre wins, though it is still an amazing effort, his team has done SO MUCH. Especially in yesterdays stage.

    WHERE AS, Nearly every time I have seen Cadel at the front, he has been the only silence-lotto member there. I am sure his team has worked hard, and as you said, helped him to the best of their ability…but their help has been nothing like CSC, leaving Cadel to do a LOT of the work himself.

    Imagine if Cadel had 2-3 team mates in the chasing group yesterday, no way would the Schleck brothers have been able to slow them all up so much, giving Sastre the lead he has now!

    If Cadel wins it will truly be an amazing effort on his behalf.

    What a fascinating end to the race we have coming!

  • Oh yes, it just keeps getting closer.

    The problem with Silence Lotto is that it was a team built around the sprinting ability of Robbie McEwan. Until Cadel joined them it was all about the Green Jersey. Now the whole culture of the team is being changed to try to take Yellow.

  • Well that makes sense then!

    If Cadel was to lose this year, but get close, I guess they may try and make some changes to the team to give it a read hot go next year?

    Andy Schleck could be a real threat in the coming years too!

  • Well what a waste of money popovych has turned out to be for silence lotto.
    When he has been needed he has been found wanting. If only Cadel had the opportunity to of had a rider capable of helping him until the final km’s of the mountain stages then im sure the gap wou;d be far less. Looking back on last years final time trial stage which was a similar distance of 55kms Cadel took almost 3mins off Sastre so the opportunity is still available for him to win this years tour.
    Lets all keep our fingers crossed that he has the time trial of his life on saturday and become Australia’s first winner of the tour de france. He will more than deserve it givin that his team has turned up missing on most stages.

  • James,

    How were the Schleck brothers slowing Cadel down? The way I see it, their only role was supporting their lead man.

  • Personally, I do hope Cadel wins. Though I am from Singapore, I think Australia has done so much in Triathlon and Cycling, the country deserves the Tour 2008. But there is really no telling what might happen given the fact that Spain’s sport has been on a roll this year. First you see Spain taking the Euro Title, and then Nadal taking the Wimbledon. Sastre might just top it off with a hat trick for Spain.

  • “James,

    How were the Schleck brothers slowing Cadel down? The way I see it, their only role was supporting their lead man.”

    Exactly! And they ‘supported’ their lead man BY slowing him down. They were the 2 people ‘mostly’ controlling the pace of the chase group. As the commentators pointed out, they kept ‘attacking’ and then slowing. This takes a lot of effort for the rest of the group to stay in touch with, therefore limiting their ability to attack.

    Also, the best way to catch people ahead seems to be to get into a groove and ride at a steady pace. Use each other as leaders and slowly work your way to those ahead. But with the Schleck brothers continually mounting min attacks (with no intention of them actually working) they stopped the chasing group getting into a grouve and making up the time deficit. It was VERY well done by team CSC. Cadel (or Menchov, or Kohl) needed a team mate or 3 in that front group so THEY could set the pace and not be dictated by team CSC whose only goal was to help Sastre up front.

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